In 2013 a curious thing happened in Stockholm. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Prize in economics to three academics who had developed theories about stock prices. What was odd was that two of the recipients — Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller — couldn't have been more opposed [...]
The opposite of Nostradamus
Over the course of his lifetime, the self-proclaimed fortune teller Nostradamus published more than six thousand different predictions. With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to see that there was little substance or predictive value in all of those prophecies. In fact, in his day, even the [...]
Financial tipping points
In the field of epidemiology, researchers have long used the term “tipping point” to describe how epidemics occur: At first, an ordinary disease moves slowly, not gaining much attention. But then, at a certain point, seemingly overnight, it snowballs into something much larger. Within the world of [...]
When you don’t know
In her bestselling book, Thinking in Bets, retired poker champion Annie Duke stresses an important point: As kids in school, it was regarded as a failure if we ever answered a question “I don't know.” But, in the world outside the classroom, the only honest answer to many questions is, in fact, “I [...]
Knowing what you don’t know
In the spring of 2000, University of California professor Terry Odean published a research paper on the topic of investor behavior. The results weren't pretty. On average, by Odean's reckoning, individual investors lagged the overall market by nearly four percentage points per year. The culprit: the [...]
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