This week, the Federal Reserve caught the market by surprise. In fact, it seemed like Fed policymakers caught even themselves by surprise. Previously, they had been forecasting that interest rates would remain near zero through 2023, on the assumption that inflation would remain manageable. But as [...]
When to split the difference
It’s that time of year again, when Wall Street strategists begin publishing their market forecasts for next year. If you’re wondering whether to put any stock in these glossy publications, here’s my recommendation: Think back a year to the forecasts issued at the end of 2019. Did any of them predict [...]
The Schwandts
Congratulations are in order for Jay and Kateri Schwandt, a Michigan couple who recently welcomed a new baby girl. This might not sound notable except that this is the Schwandt’s fifteenth child—and all of their first fourteen children are boys. In an interview, Jay Schwandt commented that he didn’t [...]
The election
Do elections affect the stock market? Last week I cited an analysis by Vanguard Group which attempted to answer this question. The verdict: “It’s understandable to have concerns about the election. But as far as your portfolio and the markets are concerned, history suggests it will be a nonissue.” [...]
Making better decisions
On January 10, 2000, America Online co-founder Steve Case stood on stage in New York to announce the largest corporate takeover in American history, buying venerable Time Warner for $165 billion. At the time of the announcement, commentators called it the merger of the century. But just five years [...]
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