In the past, I’ve talked about Robert Shiller’s book Narrative Economics. Shiller argues that stories can be a powerful force in moving markets—more so even than facts or data. Recently, I gained a better understanding of why that’s the case. I was speaking with a fellow who, it seemed, I [...]
Ominous predictions
In a note to clients this week, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote that they expect a “major recession.” Are you wondering what to make of ominous predictions like this? Below are some suggestions. First, don’t panic. Yes, Deutsche Bank is a big institution. But it's worth noting that this week two [...]
It depends
Many financial questions have clear answers. Does it make sense to engage in day trading? Probably not. Should you invest everything in bitcoin? I wouldn’t recommend it. Is it smart to carry big credit card balances? It’s hard to think of a reason why. Many other financial questions, though, [...]
Awaiting the all-clear signal
Earlier this week, someone asked me about a popular and frequently-cited market statistic. It goes like this: The U.S. stock market has historically delivered a return of 10%, on average, per year. However, if an investor had missed just the five best days over the past 30 years, that return would [...]
Dogma
In 1954, Harry Markowitz was a graduate student in economics at the University of Chicago and had just finished defending his thesis. Most of the committee accepted his work. But Milton Friedman, an economist with a national reputation, and easily the most influential member of the economics [...]
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